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Poll: Cheney Run in 2024 Guarantees a Trump Victory

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Poll: Cheney Run in 2024 Guarantees a Trump Victory
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The results from the latest poll from Yahoo News/YouGov released on Tuesday show that Liz Cheney, the loser in Wyoming’s Republican primary two weeks ago, would spoil Biden’s chances for reelection if she were to run as an Independent in 2024. She would, in a word, flip a close contest without her into a runaway victory for former President Donald Trump.

The poll, taken days after Cheney’s historic defeat, asked 1,563 adults these key questions:

  1. Should President Biden run for president again in 2024? 62 percent of them said no.
  2. If the 2024 election were held today [Trump vs. Biden], who would you vote for? Biden: 42 percent; Trump: 39 percent. A margin of victory for Biden of three points.
  3. If Liz Cheney were to run as an independent and the 2024 election for President were held today, who would you vote for? Biden: 29 percent; Trump: 37 percent; Cheney: 11 percent. A margin of victory for Trump of eight points.

In other words, Cheney entering the 2024 race as an Independent would not help Biden at all, flipping the contest in Trump’s favor by 11 points.

This is not the result Cheney is hoping for. Following her thrashing in Wyoming’s Republican primary, Cheney doubled down in her quest to burn Trump to the ground. She told Savannah Guthrie on NBC’s Today show the day after her defeat:

I believe that Donald Trump continues to pose a very grave threat and risk to our republic. And I think that defeating him is going to require a broad and united front of Republicans, Democrats and independents, and that’s what I intend to be a part of.

So determined is she to keep Trump out of the White House that Cheney announced the formation of a political action committee called “The Great Task,” and funded it with the remains of her reelection campaign kitty of more than $7 million.

She despaired that Trump remains in control of the Republican Party:

We’ve now got one major political party, my party, which has really become a cult of personality, and we’ve got to get this party back to a place where we’re embracing the values and the principles on which it was founded.

When pressed about her plans to enter the 2024 presidential race, she demurred but without conviction:

That’s a decision that I’m going to make in the coming months, and I’m not going to make any announcements here this morning — but it is something that I am thinking about.

The results of Tuesday’s poll are going to give her plenty to think about. Biden’s unfavorable rating is so high that voters, including Democrats, would likely seize the opportunity to vote for Cheney instead of Biden, given the chance.

Three of the last seven polls reported at RealClearPolitics prove the point: The Harvard/Harris poll reveals Biden has a 55-percent disapproval rating among registered voters, while Quinnipiac University’s poll shows him with a 57-percent disapproval rating among those same voters. And the New York Times/Siena College poll gives Biden a 58-percent disapproval rating, also among registered voters.

So, Cheney’s entry into the 2024 race would be a welcome relief to Democratic voters who don’t like Biden but detest Trump. And as a result, they would flip the contest in Trump’s favor.

Related articles:

Liz Cheney Giving Up, but Not Going Away

Liz Cheney Goes Down to Defeat by 37 Points

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